JOHNSON COUNTY, Kan. — With 19 days until Election Day, the race between Republican U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton is entering its final stretch.
In the next few days, President Donald Trump is preparing to visit Wichita and a FOX4 debate between the candidates is just one week away.
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At the center of the race is a familiar divide in Kansas politics, suburban Johnson County versus rural western Kansas.
For nearly three decades, Bob Beatty has taught political science at Washburn University and studied Kansas politics. He says the state’s voter registration numbers help explain why Democrats have struggled to win statewide elections.
“Party registration…which is 45% Republican,” Beatty said.
About 25% of Kansas voters are registered Democrats, while the rest are unaffiliated.
“There’s an adage in Kansas politics that for a Democrat to win statewide, they have to win big in Johnson County and they have to not get slaughtered in western Kansas,” Beatty said.
Johnson County and Sedgwick County together account for nearly 65% of the state’s registered voters, making them critical battlegrounds in a statewide contest.
For Hamilton, the path to victory runs through Johnson County. Beatty says the Democrat would need to win the county by more than 20 percentage points, exceeding the margin Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly secured there in 2022, while avoiding major losses elsewhere.
For Marshall, the strategy is different.
Beatty says the Republican needs to drive turnout among his rural base, particularly in western Kansas, while limiting Democratic gains in Johnson County.
That dynamic raises a larger question about the state’s political identity, is Kansas as reliably Republican as its history suggests, or could the current political climate create an opening for Democrats?
“The tide can shift under particular weather conditions,” Beatty said.
History, however, remains a significant obstacle for Hamilton. No Democrat has won a U.S. Senate seat in Kansas since 1932, a 94-year stretch that underscores the challenge facing the challenger.
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Still, Beatty believes the race is winnable for Hamilton.
“Oh my gosh, can Hamilton win? For sure. Hamilton definitely can win, and right now it’s more probable than not that he will,” Beatty said.
With Trump’s scheduled visit to Wichita five days away and the FOX4 debate between Marshall and Hamilton set for seven days from now, both campaigns have a narrowing window to persuade voters and turn their supporters out.
