WICHITA, Kan. (KSNW) — On the eve of the final scheduled debate between the U.S. Senate candidates in Kansas, polling shows that the race couldn’t be closer.
Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall and his Democratic challenger, the Rev. Adam Hamilton, will debate Wednesday night on KSN and the other Nexstar stations in Kansas.
There’s a lot at stake for both candidates because, according to three polling aggregators, the race is statistically tied.
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Poll numbers always come with asterisks. For one, polls capture a snapshot in time, so they can become out of date quickly. The margin of error also means that a race could actually look much different than it seems on the surface.
Plus, sometimes a lack of polling can make it difficult to get the full picture of what’s happening. In Kansas, there has been only one poll conducted in October, and it was done by a partisan pollster.
With all that being said, here’s the state of the race according to three polling aggregators.
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RealClearPolitics: Marshall +0.3 or +0.7 points
RealClearPolitics compiles all recent polls and averages them. Its average of polls including only Marshall and Hamilton has Marshall at 46% and Hamilton at 45.7%.
But don’t forget that Libertarian David Graham is also on the ballot. Here’s how the average of polls accounting for all three candidates breaks down:
- Marshall: 45.5%
- Hamilton: 44.8%
- Graham: 3.5%
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Regardless of whether Marshall is ahead by 0.3 percentage points or 0.7 percentage points, the lead is not statistically significant. It’s within the margin of error for each of the polls included in the average.
The most recent survey was conducted by InsiderAdvantage from Oct. 13 to Oct. 14. It found the following results in a three-way poll:
- Marshall: 48%
- Hamilton: 47%
- Graham: 3%
But the margin of error for that poll is 2.8 percentage points. That means each candidate’s support could be 2.8 points higher or lower than the poll says.
So Marshall’s 1-point lead could actually be as big as 6.6 points. If the errors go the other way, Hamilton could be ahead by as much as 4.6 points. Any outcome within that range is possible, according to this poll.
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RealClearPolitics’ average has its critics. It weights all polls that it includes equally in its average, regardless of when they were taken and who took them.
Its average of two-way polls between Marshall and Hamilton comprises six surveys. Two of them were conducted more than a month ago. And InsiderAdvantage is an openly conservative polling group.
Other aggregators weight polls differently based on recency and quality. Polls not associated with either side of the aisle are preferred.
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FiftyPlusOne: Hamilton +1 point
FiftyPlusOne is one of those aggregators that come up with a weighted average. Its made up of former staff members at FiveThirtyEight, the now-defunct renowned website founded by analyst Nate Silver.
Its average puts Hamilton at 46.9% and Marshall at 45.6%.
The difference between Hamilton’s lead in this average and Marshall’s lead in the RealClearPolitics average is at least partly a result of which polls the average includes.
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Unlike RealClearPolitics, FiftyPlusOne includes a poll that was sponsored by the Hamilton campaign. That poll, conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 4 by GBAO, found that the Democrat was up by 5 points.
On the other hand, FiftyPlusOne did not include a poll by Trafalgar Group, whose results typically favor Republicans. RealClearPolitics did include the poll, which showed a tie at 44% for each candidate.
But just like with Marshall’s lead in the RealClearPolitics average, Hamilton’s lead in this one is so narrow that the race is a statistical tie.
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270toWin: Hamilton +1.6 points or tie
This average puts Hamilton at 47% and Marshall at 45.4% when Graham is not mentioned by name.
The sample of polls for this average doesn’t include an older poll that showed Marshall with a 5-point lead. That poll is the biggest reason for Marshall’s lead in the RealClearPolitics average.
But 270toWin does include a survey from Wedgewood Polls, a group that appeared suddenly this year, that shows Hamilton up by 2 points.
Just before this article was published, Wedgewood said it was a fictional firm that published fabricated data. Its stated goal was to test how easy it was to get fake numbers included in poll aggregations and news outlets.
“Wedgewood Polling was never intended to sway an election or permanently mislead the public; it was designed as a wake-up call,” the group said in a statement.
Its website has now been removed.
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The website also has an average of polls that include Graham, but there’s only one poll in it. The survey by Siena College found Marshall and Hamilton tied at 45%, with Graham at 3%.
Once again, this aggregator paints a picture of a race that could go either way.
The debate between Marshall and Hamilton starts at 7 p.m. You can watch it on KSN, KSN+ and ksn.com. There will also be a pre-debate show at 6:30 p.m. and a post-debate show at 8 p.m. that will stream on KSN+ and ksn.com.
