Scholars at our organization — the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) — have many skills, but predicting the future is not one of them. However, when it comes to prediction markets, based on recent events, we can see less red tape in their future to the benefit of the American public.

Prediction markets enable speculative contracts on political, economic, and, increasingly, sports, and cultural events, while functioning like traditional commodity futures exchanges that match traders speculating that prices of certain goods will go up or down. The solid performance of prediction markets versus the lackluster performance of polls in the presidential election vindicated economists who argue that the most accurate forecasts are those with money riding on them.

Yet despite the bipartisan acclaim for prediction markets, the Biden administration did everything it could to shut these venues down, even attempting to ban an election market exchange that had been approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) under the Obama administration back in 2014. Recent events, however, enable a good prediction that these venues will have a smoother ride in the Trump administration.

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